India’s electricity system could face a double challenge this year if a Super El Nino develops. Electricity demand is expected to rise sharply even as power generation comes under pressure.
According to a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, India is likely to face significant impacts on its energy system from this year’s El Nino, as soaring temperatures could increase the need for cooling while lower rainfall may reduce hydropower generation and strain thermal power plants.
Rising temperatures are expected to increase the use of air conditioners and other cooling appliances, while weaker monsoon rainfall could lower reservoir levels, reducing hydropower generation. El Nino conditions could also weaken wind speeds, limiting electricity generation from wind turbines.
The report estimates that these combined effects could leave India with a generation gap of nearly 18 billion units, requiring coal-fired power plants to generate more electricity and increasing both coal consumption and carbon emissions.
According to Nandikesh Sivalingam, Director at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, India has just endured one of its hottest summers on record, with the recent heatwave pushing peak power demand to an all-time high of 270 GW. He said the country must stay on track to achieve its target of 500 GW of non-fossil power capacity by 2030 while accelerating investments in battery storage and grid upgrades to ensure clean energy can reliably and affordably meet future spikes in electricity demand.
COAL STILL POWERS INDIA
India’s electricity generation has gradually become more diverse over the past six years, although coal remains the dominant source. Coal’s share declined from 69 per cent in FY21 to 67 per cent in FY26, after peaking at 73 per cent in FY24. Solar’s contribution more than doubled from four to nine per cent over the same period. Wind’s share also increased to 6 per cent, whereas large hydropower kept hovering around 10–11 per cent.
Despite the progress in renewable energy over the years, coal still supplies about two-thirds of India’s electricity, leaving the power system heavily dependent on thermal generation when extreme weather reduces renewable output. A Super El Nino could therefore temporarily slow the country’s clean-energy transition by increasing dependence on coal to maintain grid stability.
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