A strengthening El Nino could make 2027 one of the hottest years on record across parts of Asia, with Malaysia already warning that temperatures may surpass its all-time high of 40.1°C if the climate pattern intensifies as forecast.
Similarly, weather agencies around the world expect the event to peak between March and May 2027, bringing lower rainfall, harsher heat and prolonged dry spells.
The warning is also relevant for India.
The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has projected a high probability that El Nino conditions will likely peak between November 2026 and January 2027, causing sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean to remain unusually high until April-May 2027.
While the exact impact will depend on how the event evolves over the coming months, scientists say El Nino often leaves its strongest temperature imprint in the year after it develops, raising the risk of hotter summers, weaker monsoons and greater pressure on water resources across South Asia.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also indicated that the event could strengthen later this year.
WHY DOES EL NINO CAUSE HOT SUMMERS THE NEXT YEAR?
El Nino is a natural climate pattern that develops when the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean becomes unusually warm.
As the ocean releases more heat into the atmosphere, weather patterns shift around the world.
However, the atmosphere does not respond instantly.
Oceans store enormous amounts of heat and release it gradually over several months. This delayed transfer means global and regional temperatures often peak after El Nino itself reaches maximum strength.
That is why the record-breaking 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Nino events were followed by exceptionally hot conditions across many parts of the world.
Scientists have added that human-driven climate change is now adding to that natural warming, increasing the chances of more intense heatwaves.
WILL INDIA FACE A SCORCHING SUMMER?
For India, El Nino is closely monitored because it is linked with a higher chance of below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall, although it does not guarantee drought every time.
Other climate drivers, such as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can either strengthen or weaken its effects. The IOD, however, remains inconsistent when playing its role.
A weaker monsoon can reduce soil moisture, lower reservoir levels and leave the ground drier heading into the next summer.
With less moisture available for evaporation, more of the Sun’s energy goes into heating the land, making heatwaves more intense and longer lasting.
NOT CERTAIN BUT A WARNING NONETHELESS
Scientists stress that no single weather event can determine how India’s summer of 2027 will unfold.
Regional rainfall, western disturbances, tropical cyclones and the Indian Ocean Dipole will all influence temperatures, but the warning about the expected arrival of a scorching summer is something to pay heed to.
If a strong El Nino persists and combines with long-term global warming, India and neighbouring countries could face a greater risk of extreme heat, reduced rainfall and higher stress on agriculture, water supplies and public health in 2027.
It could, therefore, demonstrate yet again how climate change is a more peculiar issue for the global South.
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