Feckless and clueless, Donald Trump is lost in Iran, unable to find a way out of the disastrous war he started. Once again, the US military is pummelling the country and, increasingly, its civilian infrastructure. As before, this unlawful bludgeoning strengthens the resistance of a hardline regime that cares little for its people’s suffering. How often have Trump and Pete Hegseth, the Pentagon’s wildling lord of bones, hailed a bogus victory? The president claimed this week to be “winning big”. No one believes him. Even as it counts the vast human and economic cost of his Persian folly, a watching world scoffs at US impotence.
Control of the strait of Hormuz, closed due to Trump’s belligerence, is now the White House’s limited, elusive objective. The grander US and Israeli war aims – eliminating Iran’s nuclear programme, degrading its regional militias, regime change – are less attainable than ever. It’s Trump’s craven leadership that renders US forces ineffective, not the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. If Iran really is the existential menace he claims, the logical course would be all-out conquest. When George W Bush decided Iraq posed unacceptable dangers, he invaded with 170,000 ground troops. It was a catastrophe. But at least Bush had balls.
Bone-spur Trump dare not attempt anything like that in Iran, for which small mercy the world should doubtless be thankful. But nor will he admit his mistake in recklessly starting a fight he cannot finish. He prefers to expose civilians and US troops to an unwinnable forever war of attrition, imperil Gulf Arab allies, damage the global economy, risk devastating famine in developing countries, gladden the hearts of tyrants from Moscow to Beijing, eviscerate international law and ruin his Republican party’s electoral prospects – rather than accept that he blundered and seek a diplomatic settlement
Trump’s self-love, not Iran, is global enemy No 1. He’s the principal reason this war is escalating uncontrollably again. He’s a one-man weapon of mass destruction.
There’s a familiar pattern here. Trump went to war without consulting Congress, US allies or the American public. He had no clear plan or long-term strategy. He swallowed dodgy assurances of speedy victory from Israel’s equally dodgy prime minister. His profound ignorance of the military and regional risks was undisturbed by the expert assessments he reportedly ignored. Amazingly, Trump was expecting Iran to capitulate before closing the strait and was “shocked” by its retaliatory attacks on US bases in Gulf states. No one else was. Now he’s all at sea.
This same arrogance and irresponsibility characterised last year’s grandiose 20-point Gaza “peace plan”. None of the key elements – reconstruction, an international stabilisation force, demilitarisation – have advanced, and Trump has mostly lost interest. Hamas has not disarmed, Israeli forces refuse to withdraw from the territory, humanitarian aid is still disrupted and more than 1,000 Palestinians have been killed since October’s “ceasefire”. With no political solution in sight, Gaza exists in a state of no-peace, no-war limbo.
A similar critique applies to Trump’s unhelpful interventions in the Ukraine-Russia war. He never concerned himself with root causes or Vladimir Putin’s dishonourable motives. He favoured what he perceived to be the stronger party and tried to bully Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, into quasi-capitulation. When that failed, he petulantly turned his back on Kyiv – although he’s still trying, for reasons only he can explain, to appease the intransigent Putin. Now this pattern of presidential stupidity, impatience and irresponsibility repeats again in Iran.
Unable to extricate himself, Trump is flailing. At the heart of this week’s escalation is June’s “memorandum of understanding”, which supposedly froze the conflict for 60 days pending substantive negotiations. Trump hailed the MoU as a personal triumph, but like so many of his deals, it is fatally flawed. Its fifth paragraph appeared to legitimise de facto Iranian control over the strait. Desperate for an off-ramp, Trump agreed to it. Now, as the consequences become clearer, he jibs. Little wonder Tehran doesn’t trust him. Who does?
The damage caused by Trump’s Iran fiasco appears limitless at this point. It is a spectacle of a kind the world has rarely witnessed. Like an alcoholic who takes a drink believing that, this time, the outcome will be different, Trump has resumed daily bombing even though all previous onslaughts failed to produce the desired effect. The more he bombs, the more immoveable the regime becomes, the more conflict intensifies and widens, and the more remote is any chance of resolving the nuclear issue which, the US and Israel claim, is the crux of the matter.
It’s plain that Trump, vowing to impose maritime tolls in the strait and then reversing himself within 24 hours, overseeing attacks on civilian infrastructure that could amount to war crimes, and facing the economically dire prospect of a Red Sea blockade by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, has no clue how to escape this deepening quagmire. European allies look askance, Washington’s enemies chortle with glee, global markets take fright and the oil price rises again. The US’s reputation and influence in the world diminish with every missile fired. It’s tough being a superpower when no one respects you.
Who will stop Trump? Congress has told him to halt the war or else seek official authorisation. He’s ignoring it. Polls show a majority of Americans are against the whole $100bn, inflation-fuelling mess, yet Trump refuses to listen. Appalled allies, licking their wounds after another tongue-lashing at Nato’s Ankara summit, dare not check him for fear of permanent rupture. Pope Leo tries his valiant best. Prayer may be the only thing left.
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Squatting in the Kremlin amid the ruins of his own martial delusions, Putin is only too happy to watch the Americans channel scarce missile interceptors, treasure and energy into another Middle East forever war, far removed from Ukraine. The greater the strains within the western alliance, the better he likes it, especially if – as intelligence reports suspect – Russia plans a large-scale hybrid warfare provocation in Poland or the Baltic republics. And if anyone doubts China’s attitude, just look at last week’s submarine-launched long-range missile test in the South Pacific. Like anxious Japan and Taiwan, President Xi Jinping is closely studying Trump’s theatre of chaos. China is already a huge beneficiary, economically and in terms of soft power leverage. Sooner or later, Xi will cash in militarily.
The Trump conundrum is ultimately one for the American people to resolve. They elected him. They saddled the world with this dangerous monster. It’s they who may ultimately pay the highest price for his depredations. Like Thomas Jefferson and the founding fathers back in 1776, we, the people of the world, hold these truths to be self-evident: far from making America great again, Trump makes it smaller, meaner, unhappier, more divided, isolated and unloved. Urgently needed now: a 2026 declaration of independence from Trump.
