When I wrote that the world’s number one team had never won a World Cup, France was the side carrying that record into the finals. The team went into the tournament at the top of the FIFA rankings, the best in the world on paper.
In the early hours of July 15, Indian time, Spain beat it 2–0 in Dallas, kicking it out. The top-ranked team once again will not lift the World Cup trophy.
It was not a fluke, and for France, it was not even new. Spain has now knocked France out of four consecutive competitions: the Euro 2024 semifinal, the Paris 2024 Olymorld Cup. The ranking that keeps making France favourites is the same ranking that keeps flattering it.
RIVALRY, NOT A ROUT
The bars matter as much as the result. Spain has eliminated France four times since July 2024. None was a rout, and two of the four turned on a single goal, yet Spain has found a way through every time.
Spain won 2–1 at Euro 2024, 5–3 after extra time in the Olyml, France, which had not conceded a goal through the knockout rounds — past Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco — lost 2–0.
The World Cup exit stings most. Spain kept finding a way past France that night, the most punishing kind of hoodoo for a side that has spent two years among the best-ranked in the world.
THE RECORD IS BLUNT
Since FIFA began ranking teams in 1993, the team ranked number one going into a World Cup has never gone on to win it. Champions have come from further down, with an average rank of about 5.6 the month before kick-off; France itself won the 1998 title, ranked 14. The ranking measures recent form. The trophy has always rewarded something the table does not.
France fits the pattern to the letter. Top of the world going into the tournament, and out of it in the semifinals without scoring, against the one team it cannot solve.
WHAT THE PAPER WAS WORTH
France went into the World Cup as the team to beat on paper. The paper, once again, was worth very little. A high ranking carried it to the last four and no further, undone by the opponent who has made a habit of ending their tournaments.
Spain will now go to the final in New York on July 19 (the early hours of July 20 in India). Whoever it meets, France will not be at the top of the world ranking and out of the tournament all the same.
– Ends
