Despite an improvement in rainfall during the first 10 days of July, kharif sowing in India continued to trail last year’s pace. As of July 10, farmers had sown 350.85 lakh hectares, about 16% lower year-on-year. The gap, however, narrowed from a 21% deficit a week earlier as rainfall improved temporarily.
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However, the recovery may prove short-lived say experts. After widespread showers helped reduce the country’s cumulative rainfall deficit from 40% at the end of June to 14% by July 9, monsoon activity weakened again, pushing the nationwide shortfall to 18% by Monday. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast subdued rainfall over the northwestern plains, west-central India and south Peninsular India over the next six to seven days, raising concerns over fresh delays in sowing.
As of Monday, several key agricultural regions—including eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Punjab, parts of Gujarat, Maharashtra, Telangana and Karnataka—continued to record rainfall deficits exceeding 20%, with some areas facing shortfalls of up to 47%.
“Lower rainfall in key agricultural regions of Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat since July 8 means rising temperatures and declining soil moisture could start weighing on crop yields. Based on current conditions, we can confidently say acreage under pulses, millets and oilseeds is likely to decline. The bigger concern is the rainfall forecast for the next seven to 10 days,” said Garima Jain, chief executive officer at Torq Commodities.
The sowing data already points in that direction. Pulses acreage stood at 2.3 million hectares, down 23.3% from a year ago, while oilseeds were sown over 7.1 million hectares, a decline of 21%. Area under coarse cereals fell 22.5% to 5.3 million hectares, while cotton acreage was down 15.3% at 9.2 million hectares. Rice was the only major foodgrain showing signs of recovery, with acreage reaching 4.8 million hectares—still 8.6% below last year, but 17.3% above the normal area following improved rainfall in eastern India.
The concern is particularly acute in the Monsoon Core Zone—a swathe stretching from Gujarat across central India to West Bengal—which accounts for a large share of India’s rain-fed agriculture. The region is crucial for crops such as soybean, pulses and millets, and any prolonged dry spell during the peak sowing window could further reduce acreage and begin to affect yield prospects later in the season.
