India’s southwest monsoon staged a remarkable comeback in early July, only to lose momentum again within days, raising concerns over the rest of the rainy season.
After a spell of widespread rain helped reduce the country’s seasonal rainfall deficit to around 14%, two consecutive days of below-normal rainfall pushed the shortfall back up to 15.8%, with weather conditions expected to remain subdued over much of the country in the coming week.
The revival was driven largely by heavy rainfall over central India, where several states recorded excess precipitation. Northwest and peninsular India also received much-needed showers, helping improve the overall rainfall picture.
However, eastern and northeastern India continue to lag significantly behind normal, with large deficits persisting in several states.
HOW DID INDIA’S RAINFALL LEVELS IMPROVE?
The improvement came within the first week, and was undoubtedly a major relief.
Just days earlier, India was staring at one of its weakest starts to the monsoon season, with June ending nearly 40% below normal, becoming the nation’s fifth-driest June since nationwide records began in 1901.
The situation changed rapidly in late June and early July as the southwest monsoon accelerated, covering the entire country by July 9, just a day behind its normal schedule.
The active spell brought widespread rain, causing flooding and disruptions in several regions, but also raising the deficit from a worrying 40% to an optimistic 14%.
That optimism has now turned out to be short-lived.
MONSOON ENTERS A NEW PHASE
The latest decline in rainfall reflects what meteorologists describe as a monsoon break, a common feature of the season during which the monsoon trough shifts closer to the Himalayan foothills.
As a result, rainfall decreases across the central plains and much of peninsular India, while the Himalayan region and parts of northeast India continue to receive showers.
Another factor contributing to the lull is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a moving pulse of tropical clouds and rainfall.
The MJO is currently in an unfavourable phase for India, reducing the likelihood of low-pressure systems forming over the Bay of Bengal, which typically drive widespread monsoon rainfall.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast subdued rainfall activity over central and southern peninsular India for the next six to seven days.
It has also projected below-normal rainfall for July, at less than 94% of the long-period average, even as a developing El Nino in the Pacific Ocean threatens to weaken the monsoon further by disrupting moisture-laden winds.
With the seasonal rainfall deficit once again edging towards the threshold classified as “deficient,” the next active spell of the monsoon will be crucial in determining whether India can recover from another prolonged dry phase.
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