The southwest monsoon covered the entire country on Thursday, a day later than its normal July 8 date, even as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the season’s active spell has ended and rainfall is expected to gradually weaken from Friday, with below-normal rains likely from July 15.
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The delayed advance came after a sluggish start and a nearly two-week lull, though heavy rainfall in late June and early July helped narrow the all-India monsoon deficit from 40% at the end of June to 14% as of Wednesday.
This was the most delayed coverage of the entire country since 2021. Despite arriving three days late over Kerala on June 4 and a break period of nearly two weeks during which rains were sluggish, the monsoon picked up pace towards the end of June. Excess rainfall has also been recorded so far in July.
The overall monsoon deficit, which stood at -40% on June 30, has come down to -14% as of July 9. However, the IMD predicts that the ‘active’ phase of the monsoon is now over and a gradual reduction in rainfall is expected from Friday. Rainfall could be ‘below normal’ from July 15, officials said.
“The Southwest Monsoon further advanced into remaining parts of north Arabian Sea, Rajasthan, Haryana and Punjab on Thursday. Thus, it has covered the entire country on July 9, against the normal date of July 8,” said the IMD in its national bulletin, adding a well-marked low-pressure area remains over southwest Uttar Pradesh and its surrounding region, which should lead to increased rainfall there till July 10.
“Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is likely over west Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand on July 10,” the bulletin added, with the Met department also issuing an orange alert for Himachal Pradesh on Thursday over the possibility of landslides or mudslides in vulnerable parts of the state. This included areas in Spiti, Kinnaur, Kullu, Mandi, Shimla and Sirmaur. “Water flow and levels are very likely to increase in water bodies of these districts,” it had said.
Last year, the monsoon covered the entire country on June 27, while in 2024, 2023 and 2022, it covered the country on July 2.
Till July 9, India has received 205 mm of rainfall against a long-period average (LPA) of 233.1 mm, making it a deficit of 14%. East and northeast India are the worst affected, at -38%.
Director general of meteorology M Mohapatra said the monsoon has remained active till July 9, but this phase is now ending. “The active phase is now over and from July 10 onwards, rainfall will gradually reduce for the next two weeks,” he said.
OP Sreejith, scientist and head of the climate monitoring and prediction group at IMD, said with the monsoon trough moving northwards, rainfall activity will start to reduce over India from July 10. “We can expect below normal rains for the country from July 15 onwards,” he said.
IMD, in its forecast for July, has said below-normal rainfall—94% of the LPA—is likely. Overall, the IMD has projected this year’s monsoon rainfall to be 90% of the LPA, due to El Niño.
In the 24 hours till 8:30 am on Thursday, IMD said extremely heavy rainfall (≥21 cm) was recorded over Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Maharashtra and Meghalaya. Meanwhile, very heavy rainfall (12-20 cm) was recorded over the sub-Himalayan region, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, the Konkan region and Tripura. Parts of the capital also saw heavy rainfall, leaving the city waterlogged and traffic crawling.
Vice president at Skymet Mahesh Palawat said the monsoon trough is moving rapidly towards the foothills. “We may see some decent rains over northwest India on July 10, but after that, the trough will be in the foothills and the low-pressure area is also weakening. Dry, northwesterly to westerly winds will return and temperatures will gradually start to rise over central and northwest India from July 11 onwards,” he added.
