For weeks, a strengthening El Nino had meteorologists worried that India was heading for a weak and delayed monsoon.
The fears seemed justified through June, when the southwest monsoon stalled after its initial advance, leaving the country with one of its driest starts in decades.
Yet, just days into July, the script has flipped dramatically and monsoon has covered entire India.
The southwest monsoon has revived with remarkable intensity, drenching large parts of the country and even pushing national rainfall into surplus for the month.
HOW MUCH RAIN HAS INDIA RECEIVED IN JULY?
In Mumbai, the turnaround has been particularly striking. Between July 1 and July 7, the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) Colaba observatory recorded 791 mm of rainfall, already exceeding its entire July average of 768.5 mm. At Santacruz, rainfall reached 879 mm, just short of its monthly normal of 919.9 mm.
A similar situation is being witnessed in Delhi, which has recorded 39.9 mm of rain, about 23% in excess between July 1 and July 8, 2026. Central India and Peninsular India have also witnessed surplus rain after a sluggish June.
The obvious question is: If El Nino usually weakens the Indian monsoon, why is it raining so much?
According to scientists, there is no contradiction.
El Nino primarily influences when the monsoon arrives and how frequently rain-bearing systems form. It does not necessarily determine how intensely it rains once favourable weather systems develop.
Increasingly, global warming is changing the character of the monsoon, making rainfall less frequent but far more intense.
During El Nino years, the number of rainy days is lower. But we know that the character of the monsoon has changed permanently due to global warming. Rainfall now tends to occur in short-duration, high-intensity spells, whether there is an El Nino or not.
Climate scientists say a warmer atmosphere can hold substantially more moisture. At the same time, rapidly warming oceans, including the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, are supplying greater amounts of water vapour to developing weather systems.
In July multiple weather systems have aligned to produce the current deluge.
Mumbai saw a delayed onset, which is partly explained by El Nino. But the global warming pattern over West Asia and changes in Arabian Sea winds have also played a role in the July downpour.
Moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, combined with a developing low-pressure system and the lifting effect of the Western Ghats, created ideal conditions for extremely heavy rainfall over Mumbai and adjoining coastal Maharashtra.
Scientists say this reflects a broader shift driven by climate change. Instead of rainfall being spread evenly across the season, much of it is now falling in a handful of intense cloudbursts capable of overwhelming drainage systems and triggering urban floods.
The nationwide rainfall pattern tells a similar story. After recording severe deficits through June, India received 42% above-normal rainfall between July 1 and July 8, driven by a succession of low-pressure systems and an active monsoon trough.
Researchers caution that El Nino can no longer be viewed in isolation. As global temperatures continue to rise, its influence is increasingly interacting with a warmer atmosphere and oceans, producing a monsoon that is simultaneously more erratic and more extreme.
In other words, El Nino may still delay the rains, but when they finally arrive, climate change is ensuring they arrive with far greater intensity than before.
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