Yet again, countries in the Gulf region find themselves on the front line between the United States and Iran.
At the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, President Donald Trump said the US’s interim accord to end the conflict was “over.” And Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said there had been major violations of the accord, a memorandum of understanding signed by both countries in mid-June.
Overnight, the United States bombed sites in Iran, which responded by targeting 85 US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait. All countries in the Gulf region have something to lose should fighting escalate again.
Bahrain
Bahrain is home to a major US Navy base. The recent strikes by Iran saw the country hit directly.
As Bahrain is among the smaller Gulf countries, US military installations tend to be closer to residential and commercial areas than in its neighbors. Even limited fighting disrupts civilian life.
Politically, Bahrain is in a particularly difficult position. Like other Gulf countries, Bahrain is a monarchy and represses most political dissent. But, in contrast to other Gulf countries, Bahrain’s royal family are Sunni. Estimates suggest that the majority of the population is Shiite.
Iran is a Shiite theocracy. Ongoing fighting between Iran and the United States could create tensions within Bahrain, where the government has arrested hundreds of people who allegedly posted anti-war messages online, expressed “sympathy” with Iran or participated in demonstrations, or who the government claims were “spies” working for Iran.
Kuwait
Kuwait hosts the largest number of US bases in the Middle East. This includes two air bases and about 13,500 personnel, including contractors. This has made Kuwait a target for Iranian strikes.
Previously Kuwait was more cautious with its foreign policy, often positioning itself as a mediator and emphasizing that it did not want to play a role in the current conflict. Iraq’s 1990 invasion was a factor in shaping Kuwait’s foreign policy, which is far less activist than those of its neighbors. However the fact that Iran has attacked Kuwait because of its US bases is likely to cause this attitude to evolve. Observers have already noted how the Kuwait government’s protests about Iranian strikes have become more forthright.
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Saudi Arabia
Though Iranian officials have indicated that no country that hosts US troops is safe, Iran has not yet attacked Saudi Arabia during this week’s renewed fighting. Saudi Arabia is home to a major US air force base.
After years of competing with Iran for regional influence, Saudi Arabia has stressed that diplomacy must be the answer if Gulf countries are to coexist in relative peace.
And Saudi Arabia would much rather focus on its economic goals for its Vision 2030 plan than get involved in a war it says it never wanted.
Saudi Arabia’s priority is preventing the conflict from spreading, experts say, as well as protecting its own critical oil infrastructure. Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz has seen Saudi Arabia divert some of its all-important oil exports — the country’s main revenue
In general, Saudi officials have tried to maintain a careful balance in the current conflict. They have spoken directly with the Iranians and the Americans. At one stage, Saudi Arabia denied the United States the use of its airspace to bomb Iran, but later reports suggested that the Saudis also carried out their own unpublicized strikes on Iran.
United Arab Emirates
The United Arab Emirates also hosts an important US air base. Iran has previously struck at the United Arab Emirates but has not done so this week.
Still, renewed fighting in the Middle East risks further damaging the reputation of places such as Abu Dhabi and Dubai as financial and commercial hubs, a reputation that has been essential to an Emirati economic future that is not as dependent on oil exports.
The United Arab Emirates has also been able to divert some of its oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz t.
Qatar
Qatar is home to Al Udeid air base, the largest US military installation in the Middle East. At the same time, Qatar has comparatively good relations with Iran, with whom it shares a large natural gas field. Iran has not struck Qatar directly this week, although its earlier attack on a Qatari ship at sea was one of the incidents that started this latest round of bombing.
Some analysts describe Qatari diplomats as the best in the world. They have regularly acted as mediators during the US-Iran war, including in formulating the memorandum of understanding that first stopped fighting in June.
Oman
Oman, which does not host a major US military installation, has maintained good relations with both the United States and Iran and has served as a facilitator for backchannel diplomacy between the governments. As with Qatar, the options that Oman can offer for further talks among the parties to this conflict may well be useful in the near future.
Edited by: M Gagnon
