After weeks of a sluggish advance and a deepening rainfall deficit, India’s southwest monsoon may finally be preparing for a comeback.
Meteorologists are tracking two significant weather systems expected to develop over the Bay of Bengal and central India this week, setting the stage for widespread rainfall across large parts of the country, including the long-awaited onset of sustained monsoon conditions over north India.
Despite reaching the end of June, the monsoon has struggled to establish itself over northern India. Delhi-NCR, Haryana and Rajasthan have remained trapped under intense heat and humidity, with only isolated thunderstorms offering temporary relief.
While moisture has steadily increased over the region, the lack of an organised monsoon circulation has prevented widespread rainfall.
Weather experts say that is about to change.
The key lies in the monsoon trough, a low-pressure belt that drives much of India’s seasonal rainfall. Although the trough has formed, it has remained positioned unusually close to the foothills of the Himalayas, well north of its normal location.
This has shifted the zone of active rainfall away from the Indo-Gangetic plains, delaying the arrival of proper monsoon conditions over Delhi and adjoining states.
Forecast models now indicate that the trough will gradually migrate southwards over the coming days. As it settles closer to its normal position, atmospheric instability is expected to increase, triggering thunderstorms and more widespread rain across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi-NCR, Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh.
Meteorologists expect the transition to begin between July 1 and July 5, when the monsoon is likely to establish itself firmly over northern India, bringing a noticeable drop in temperatures.
The revival, however, will not be driven by the monsoon trough alone.
Two back-to-back low-pressure areas are expected to form over the Bay of Bengal and move inland through central India during the week. These systems will pump enormous amounts of moisture into the atmosphere, strengthening the monsoon circulation and enhancing rainfall across eastern, central and western India.
The west coast is also likely to witness another spell of intense rainfall. Mumbai, which has already experienced bouts of heavy showers this season, could see rainfall intensify again around the middle of the week.
Forecasts suggest heavy to very heavy rain is likely, with some locations in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region potentially receiving close to 500 mm of rainfall by the weekend if the systems evolve as projected.
The renewed activity is expected to improve rainfall over many rain-deficit regions, although experts caution that localised flooding, waterlogging and disruptions to transport remain possible in areas experiencing prolonged heavy rain.
After nearly a month of waiting, India’s monsoon engine finally appears to be revving back to life. If the forecast holds, the first week of July could mark the transition from scattered pre-monsoon storms to the widespread, sustained rains.
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