After days of waiting, there is finally some good news for Delhi-NCR. The southwest monsoon is likely to reach the national capital around July 3, India Meteorological Department (IMD) senior scientist Dr Naresh Kumar told NDTV in an exclusive interview on Tuesday.
“Southwest monsoon is expected to reach Delhi around July 3. Most parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh are also likely to receive the monsoon over the next two to three days,” Dr Kumar said.
The forecast comes as a major relief for Delhi residents after parts of the city recorded heatwave conditions on Monday.
According to the IMD, the southwest monsoon has advanced further into parts of Madhya Pradesh, the remaining areas of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar, parts of Uttar Pradesh, most parts of Uttarakhand, and parts of Himachal Pradesh and Ladakh.
The weather department said the monsoon, which had remained sluggish over the past few days, is expected to regain momentum. Cloud systems have strengthened over the northwest Bay of Bengal and a low-pressure area is likely to form around July 3, boosting monsoon activity across central and northwestern India.
As a result, the IMD has forecast an active monsoon phase over central India this week. Very heavy rainfall is likely at isolated places over Konkan between July 2 and 4, the ghat areas of Madhya Maharashtra on July 2 and 3, and south Gujarat on July 3 and 4.
The southwest monsoon had reached the Kerala coast on June 3, three days later than usual. Its progress then slowed significantly, with little advancement between June 10 and June 21.
The delayed advance has resulted in a sharp rainfall deficit across the country. Between June 1 and June 29, India recorded 92.2 mm of rainfall against the normal 157.7 mm, a deficit of 42%.
Central India has recorded the highest rainfall deficiency at 54%, followed by east and northeast India at 41%. South Peninsular India has reported a 28% deficit, while northwest India has recorded 30% below-normal rainfall.
The weak monsoon has come at a crucial time as kharif sowing is underway in several states. Lower rainfall could affect crop production, particularly in rain-fed agricultural regions.
To tackle the possible impact, the Agriculture Ministry has prepared a special contingency plan for 315 vulnerable districts across 12 states.
Speaking exclusively to NDTV on Sunday, Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the Centre has identified 111 districts that could be severely affected by El Nino conditions, though the impact may extend to over 300 districts.
“We have identified 111 districts where El Nino is expected to have the maximum impact. However, more than 300 districts could be affected. States have been informed about all vulnerable districts, and they must be prepared to provide employment wherever farming or livelihoods are impacted under the ‘Ji Ram Ji’ scheme,” Mr Chouhan said.
According to the Agriculture Ministry, of the 315 vulnerable districts, 111 have irrigation coverage of less than 25%, 76 have irrigation coverage between 25% and 50%, while 128 have relatively better irrigation facilities through dams and other sources.
Most of these districts are spread across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha. The Centre has held meetings with agriculture ministers and district collectors of these states, asking them to step up preparedness.
Under the supervision of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), District Agriculture Contingency Plans have been prepared for all 315 districts. These plans recommend alternative crops, revised sowing strategies and efficient water management in case of deficient rainfall.
The Centre has also set up an El Nino Monitoring Cell and a Crop Weather Monitoring Group in Delhi to continuously track the progress of the monsoon, sowing patterns, crop conditions and the availability of agricultural inputs. States have been directed to establish dedicated control rooms and appoint nodal officers for better coordination with the Centre.
The Agriculture Ministry said special emphasis has been placed on pulses, millets and oilseeds, which perform relatively better under low-moisture conditions. States have also been advised to shift to alternative crops if there is a prolonged delay in rainfall and to expand the coverage of the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana in vulnerable districts to ensure timely compensation in case of crop losses.
States have also been asked to expedite the distribution of Kisan er agricultural needs. The ministry is also preparing plans to transport fodder from surplus regions to areas that could face shortages if the monsoon remains weak.
