Kashmir, although known for unpredictable weather, has experienced an unusually turbulent spring and early summer this year. The Valley has been battered by frequent rain, thundershowers—more particularly hailstorms and gusty winds—driven largely by the repeated passage of Western Disturbances and favourable local conditions for convective activity.
Based on conditions observed so far, horticulture experts believe Kashmir has experienced one of its most erratic horticultural seasons in recent memory. According to independent weather forecaster and researcher Faizan Arif, more than 50 days of weather-related activity have been recorded since late April—one of the most unsettled spring seasons in recent memory.
The impact has been particularly severe on the region’s apple orchards, the backbone of Kashmir’s rural economy. Apple cultivation sustains nearly 3.5 million farmers in Kashmir besides accounting for nearly 78 per cent of India’s annual production of the fruit.
Hailstorm frequency has risen dramatically in recent years. Data compiled by experts shows just two hailstorms in 2007 compared to 27 in 2022. This year, the number of reported hail events across Kashmir has already exceeded 100, with several locations—especially in South Kashmir—experiencing four to five separate hailstorms.
Faizan said estimating the exact number of hailstorm events across Kashmir is difficult because hailstorms are highly localised phenomena, often affecting individual villages or clusters of villages rather than entire districts. “However, based on observations and reports received from across the Valley, the number of hailstorm occurrences this year has likely exceeded 100,” he said, based on data compiled.
Widespread damage
The repeated hailstorms have caused extensive damage to apple crops at critical stages of fruit development. South and North Kashmir, including prominent fruit belts like Shopian, have been hit the hardest. On May 22, hailstorms accompanied by heavy rainfall struck multiple areas, marking the fourth such major event in Shopian district alone.
Just two days later, massive hailstorms devastated Lolab and Handwara in Kupwara district, severely affecting standing crops, including paddy fields during rice transplantation. The ongoing June month was no exception with hailstorm events being reported daily from various corners of Kashmir.
Dr Raja Junaid Rashid, horticulture development officer in Baramulla, who has done extensive research on high density apple orchards of Kashmir and has vast field experience, described the situation as a worrying long-term trend. “The increasing weather variability is not an isolated event,” he said. “Hailstorms that were once sporadic and localised have become more frequent, widespread and intense since 2023, affecting multiple districts simultaneously.”
Rising costs, disease pressure
Dr Junaid pointed out that prolonged leaf wetness and high humidity have created ideal conditions for fungal diseases such as apple scab, requiring repeated fungicide applications. Fluctuating temperatures have also complicated pest management for insects such as woolly apple aphid, green apple aphid and San Jose scale.
The erratic weather has forced apple growers to intensify plant protection efforts. “Because of the frequent thunderstorms and hailstorms, I was forced to apply more fungicide sprays in my orchards to ward off disease. Besides, the hailstorms have caused severe damage to the apple crop,” said Ali Mohammad, who manages high-density apple orchards in North Kashmir.
Growers said are also grappling with low fruit yield. “As growers were forced into repeated spray schedules, production costs have risen significantly along with labour requirements and the risk of pesticide resistance,” cautioned Dr Junaid.
Despite the frequent storms, Kashmir continues to face an overall rainfall deficit. The Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir recorded a 42 per cent rainfall deficit during the first five months of 2026. Every month since November 2025 has seen below-normal precipitation.
Faizan noted that while the recent weather activity has helped slow the depletion of groundwater and river flows, it has not been enough to offset the cumulative deficit. “The absence of any widespread, prolonged precipitation event means hydrological recovery remains incomplete,” he said.
The climate change concern
Experts acknowledge that while individual weather events cannot be solely attributed to climate change, scientific evidence points to global warming increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather.
“Global warming is the principal driver of these increasingly erratic weather patterns. Mountain regions such as the Himalayas are particularly sensitive to these changes. In the Kashmir Himalayas, Western Disturbances are changing in frequency, intensity and timing. This contributes to erratic snowfall, prolonged dry spells and intermittent episodes of heavy precipitation. At the same time, rising temperatures have led to earlier snowmelt, reduced snow cover duration, glacial retreat and longer warm seasons,” explained Prof. Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo, a distinguished earth scientist, glaciologist and vice-chancellor of the Islamic University of Science and Technology, in a conversation with INDIA TODAY.
He emphasised on the “urgent need to put into action sector-wise climate change action plans, particularly for horticulture, agriculture, water resources and hydropower, and to implement climate adaptation in all important sectors to safeguard the ecosystem and livelihoods of people”.
Faizan adopted a more cautious stance, saying: “The observed conditions remain broadly within the spectrum of natural climatic variability associated with Western Disturbances. Attributing a single season’s weather to climate change requires detailed scientific attribution studies.” He added that Kashmir’s spring has historically been known for variable and erratic weather, although the persistence and frequency this year have been unusual.
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