On June 22, a beaming Eknath Shinde, the deputy chief minister of Maharashtra and the ‘mukhya neta’ (or chief leader) of the Shiv Sena, told the media in Mumbai this: “Operation Tiger [is a] success.”
Shinde, who was flanked by senior leaders and former ministers Ramdas Kadam and Gajanan Kirtikar, was also accompanied by six Lok Sabha MPs from the rival Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray).
The six MPs—Sanjay aka Bandu Jadhav (Parbhani constituency), Sanjay Deshmukh (Yavatmal-Washim), Nagesh Patil Ashtikar (Hingoli), Bhausaheb Wakchoure (Shirdi), Omraje Nimbalkar (Osmanabad) and Sanjay Dina Patil (Mumbai North East)—have split from the nine-member Lok Sabha cohort of the beleaguered Shiv Sena (UBT) to join Shinde’s Sena.
This is the second split in the Shiv Sena in four years. In June 2022, Shinde did the unthinkable by splitting the party and toppling the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) regime led by then party boss Uddhav Thackeray. In a validation of German statesman Otto von Bismarck’s saying about politics being the art of the possible, Shinde was also propped up as Maharashtra chief minister by the BJP, with Devendra Fadnavis—in whose cabinet he was a minister from 2014 to 2019—as his deputy.
At the time, Shinde and his loyalists had claimed that Uddhav had reneged on the party’s commitment to Hindutva and the ideology of late Shiv Sena supremo Bal Thackeray by aligning with “secular” parties like the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) for the sake of power.
However, the Sena (UBT) MPs who have now joined forces with Shinde have struck a different note by stating that they defected because their constituencies were being starved of developmental funds since they were in the Opposition—a claim that raises larger questions about constitutional morality and political propriety.
Uddhav is effectively left with just three Lok Sabha MPs on his side—Arvind Sawant (Mumbai South), Anil Desai (Mumbai South Central and Parag aka Rajabhau Vaje (Nashik). There are fears that Shinde may now poach a large chunk of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s 20 MLAs and its 65 corporators in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC). Already, the absence of four legislators from a crucial meeting called by Uddhav on the very day the six MPs announced their split has intensified speculation.
The defections mean Shinde has 13 MPs from Maharashtra while his senior ally BJP has just nine. This to some extent has upended the relationship between the two parties and boosted his clout in Delhi. Grapevine suggests that six of the eight Lok Sabha MPs belonging to the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) may be poached by Shinde, but sources say the BJP will not allow Shinde’s party to grow in clout beyond a point.
Some NCP (SCP) leaders, including a Lok Sabha MP from a politically influential family in western Maharashtra, are said to be veering close to Shinde to check the growth of the BJP at the local level. They claim that a section of the BJP in Maharashtra wanted Shinde’s ‘Operation Tiger’ to fail, but was forced to back down since the BJP’s central leadership had put its weight behind Shinde to shore up their numbers in Parliament.
BJP leaders too admit that the “cold war” within their party may have helped delay the inevitable for the Uddhav camp. Shinde is seen as close to Union home minister Amit Shah.
A senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader acknowledged that the pulls and pressures within the BJP were responsible for the delay in the split in their party’s parliamentary wing, which was originally scheduled to take place last year. Shinde is said to still nurse chief ministerial ambitions.
Senior Shiv Sena (UBT) leader and Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut has claimed that the defectors were paid huge amounts to switch loyalties. Raut had also claimed Shiv Sainiks would take to the streets against the rebels in what he claimed was ‘Operation Tudwa’ (Operation Smash-up), but little has happened on the ground—a far cry from the time when the Sena could bring the wheels of Mumbai and nearby areas to a grinding halt with its raw muscle power.
“The Shiv Sena has lost its earlier spunk,” said a veteran politician, who was among the defectors from the party in the past. “Uddhav Thackeray has been nonchalant about any potential defectors, openly telling them to leave if they want to. This does not inspire any confidence in the party.”
A Shinde Sena leader said that the churn in the Shiv Sena (UBT) was due to the lack of confidence that the Thackerays—Uddhav and elder son Aaditya, who is the MLA from Worli in Mumbai—could revive the party in the near future.
A former student leader of the undivided Shiv Sena claimed that this, coupled with issues such as lack of access to the leadership for the cadre, the presence of gatekeepers around Uddhav and Aaditya, the inability to look beyond Mumbai when it comes to politics, and lack of understanding of caste and social realities were affecting the fortunes of the Sena (UBT). The Shiv Sena (UBT) could risk being restricted to a few pockets in Mumbai, he noted.
The Shiv Sena (UBT) is already battling changing demography in Mumbai, with its core voter base—the Marathi-speaking Hindus—undergoing a steady decline over the years, ironically under its watch. The Sena (UBT) has also lost ground in the Konkan, which is worrying for the party as a large chunk of the Maharashtrians in Mumbai hail from this coastal region.
Elections to the BMC saw the Shiv Sena (UBT) score just 65 wins, despite Uddhav burying the hatchet with estranged first cousin and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) president Raj Thackeray. However, the alliance between the Thackerays has not seen the two parties hit the streets on issues such as unaffordable housing, exclusion of the Marathi manoos from housing and job opportunities, and what some see as the growing cultural and culinary aggression of non-Maharashtrian mercantile groups like the Jains.
The BJP got its Ritu Tawde elected as the mayor of Mumbai, and there are chances that if Shinde splits the Shiv Sena (UBT) in the civic house, his party may stake claim to the mayor’s post for the remaining two-and-a-half-year term.
As a senior Congress leader noted, the Shiv Sena (UBT) was also hemmed in by the fact that many Maharashtrians were choosing to vote on religious lines instead of linguistic ones. This made the Shiv Sena (UBT) minus the BJP and Shinde lose a chunk of the pro-Hindutva Marathi votes. Incidentally, most of the Shiv Sena (UBT)’s MLAs in Mumbai and elsewhere have been elected due to support from the Muslims—the party’s erstwhile btes noires.
With the Shiv Sena (UBT) shrinking to a few pockets in Mumbai and Maharashtra, the Congress now fancies a chance for itself. As rumours go, the BJP may not dither when it comes to breaking the Shinde Sena, with a significant section of the party leadership owing loyalty to chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. Some BJP leaders, such as Mahesh Shinde (Koregaon), Nilesh Rane (Kudal) and Murji Patel (Andheri East), have been elected on the Shiv Sena ticket.
Subscribe to India Today Magazine
– Ends
