India’s southwest monsoon has hit a wall after its onset over India on June 4, 2026. Meteorologists say the unusual delay across India is likely caused by a complex interaction of multiple weather systems rather than a single factor.
The monsoon’s advance across the country slowed dramatically after an early burst of activity, leading to a sharp rainfall deficit and raising concerns among farmers and water managers.
Weather experts now believe a combination of Pacific disturbances, Western Disturbances, weak low-pressure formation, a lack of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) support and an emerging El Nino all played a role.
One of the most significant influences came from the western Pacific Ocean.
During early June, a monsoon surge developed over the Indian Ocean, but part of its energy appears to have become linked with tropical circulations in the Pacific, including a system that later intensified into Typhoon Jagmi. Instead of helping generate a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, which typically drives monsoon progress across India, some of the atmospheric energy was diverted eastward.
At the same time, repeated Western Disturbances dipped unusually far south across northern India. These systems continuously transported dry northwesterly winds into the region, creating an environment hostile to widespread cloud formation and rainfall.
The monsoon trough, a belt of low pressure stretching across the subcontinent, also failed to behave normally.
A cyclonic circulation developed along the trough, but instead of pulling moisture deeper into the Bay of Bengal, it kept much of the low-level wind flow circulating along the trough itself. This prevented thunderstorms from organising efficiently and made it difficult for a Low Pressure Area (LPA) to form.
The situation worsened as Pacific disturbances strengthened. Weather maps showed low-level winds becoming increasingly straight and west-to-east oriented. Normally, low-pressure systems need curved, converging winds to concentrate moisture and generate rising motion.
With winds becoming more parallel to the monsoon trough, convergence weakened significantly, reducing the chances of a Bay of Bengal low developing.
An evolving El Nino then further weakened the background environment needed for sustained convection. While El Nino alone cannot stop the monsoon, it can make conditions less favourable for widespread thunderstorm activity.
Another missing ingredient was the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pulse of tropical rainfall that moves around the globe. During the first half of June, the MJO remained in an unfavourable phase, offering little support for cloud formation over the Indian Ocean.
A brief monsoon surge did help rainfall advance along parts of the west coast, but the push was short-lived. Without a Bay of Bengal low to anchor the monsoon flow and with dry air repeatedly returning, the surge weakened and retreated southward.
The outlook, however, is improving. Forecasters expect the MJO to move into a favourable phase, while the Low Level Jet, cross-equatorial flow and upper-level easterly winds strengthen during the fourth week of June.
Together, these changes could finally overcome the persistent dry air intrusions and trigger a genuine monsoon revival across India.
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