If the peace agreement holds, the conflict between the US and Iran may soon be over, but it could take months if not years before the global economy returns to its previous course.
As the Iran war and current energy crisis have again exposed the global economy’s dependence on oil and gas, some economists say it is time to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels, and to reduce dependence on volatile energy markets.
In opening remarks at this year’s climate talks in the German city of Bonn, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said the war in the Middle East was not only responsible for “immense human suffering” but had sparked “a fossil fuel cost crisis that’s strangling economies everywhere.”
He said it had now become “crystal clear,” that maintaining dependence on fossil fuels meant continuing to import inflation and economic instability.
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The Bonn negotiations have been ongoing for the past two weeks with the aim of preparing the agenda for the 2026 COP climate conference, to be held in Turkey in November.
The yearly COP summit brings together the almost 200 countries party to the Paris Agreement — the 2015 accord designed to keep global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) and with efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees.
Burning coal, oil and gas remains the primary driver of rising temperatures across the world, and the annual talks focus on how to transition towards a clean clean energy future in a fair and equitable way.
The words “fossil fuels”, however, do not actually appear in the Paris Agreement. And for many years explicitly discussing their phaseout was considered almost taboo within negotiating rooms.
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But observers say the latest energy price shocks have shifted the political debate in Bonn and opened up new discussions about energy independence. Not least because oil and gas importing countries are now facing higher costs.
Though this changing political mood has yet to trickle down to the highly technical climate negotiations.
New pro-renewables alliance not universally endorsed
At the climate summit in Brazil in November 2025, governments failed to agree on a clear roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels, with efforts blocked in particular by oil producing states such as Saudi Arabia and Iran. China, Russia, Tanzania and Senegal also opposed stronger language on any shift.
In response to this lack of consensus, around 60 countries gathered in Colombia in April for the first conference specifically dedicated to implementing a transition away from fossil fuels (TAFF).
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The meeting amounted to a “coalition of the willing”. Hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, it brought together countries including Brazil, Australia and Norway, as well as many nations that are already experiencing severe climate impacts. Germany also attended.
Africa against the “alliance of the willing”
Opinions differ widely on how and whether the TAFF initiative could influence implementation of the Paris Agreement, which is entirely separate from the international accord.
Nonetheless, a senior diplomat from a TAFF participating country told DW on condition of anonymity that national representatives had continued to discuss possible future structures and working methods of the new alliance behind closed doors in Bonn.
Countries that oppose a clear fossil fuel phaseout are concerned that the TAFF union could interfere with the broader political dynamics of the UN negotiations.
“It is a multilateral process and we shouldn’t engage outside the process and later come and then probably push those outcomes on others who are not part of the willing,” African lead negotiator Antwi Boasiako Amoah told DW.
Africa’s position on a phaseout remains complex. Some countries, such as Nigeria export fossil fuels while other rely on them to expand energy access and economic development.
At the same time, African countries are among those already suffering the most severe consequences of climate change despite having contributed less than 4% of historical global greenhouse gas emissions.
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A lack of affordable financing remains one of the biggest obstacles to investing in renewable energy and building sustainable prosperity across the continent. Many African countries face high borrowing costs and limited access to affordable capital on international financial markets.
African negotiators are not the only ones who are sceptical of initiatives outside the Paris Agreement framework. Discussions about phasing out fossil fuels remain blocked in many negotiating rooms.
“Whenever we try, Saudi Arabia and their friends raise all kinds of procedural objections and other tactics,” said one diplomat involved in the talks.
Can the energy crisis accelerate growth of renewables?
According to International Energy Agency executive director Fatih Birol, the recent energy crises have exposed the vulnerability of a system heavily dependent on fossil fuel markets and geopolitically fragile supply chains.
The political responses to the crisis have been mixed, according to a new report by the German think tank New Climate Institute.
Many governments, including Germany’s, have relied on traditional measures such as tax relief for fossil fuels. Others, including the European Union, Chile, Indonesia and Vietnam, have used the crisis to accelerate electrification and introduce reforms supporting cleaner energy systems.
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Researchers conclude that recent crises have permanently altered the global energy landscape. Governments increasingly recognise the risks associated with dependence on fossil fuels, yet decisive policy responses remain insufficient.
Focus shifts towards implementation
Before Turkey and Australia take over the presidency of the next climate negotiations, Brazil’s outgoing COP30 President André Correa do Lago reflected on the progress made in Bonn.
“We are moving from COPs focused on negotiations to COPs focused on implementation,” he said.
Among other decisions taken in Brazil last year, countries agreed to triple the amount of adaptation finance provided to developing nations by 2035.
One of the central debates over the past two weeks in Bonn was the baseline from which this increase should be calculated. Using 2019 as the reference year would mean tripling roughly $20 billion in funding, versus around a $40 billion 2025 baseline.
Antwi Boasiako Amoah stressed that Africa cannot finance adaptation through additional debt. Instead of loans, the continent needs greater public support and a substantial increase in international climate finance.
The issue is expected to be high on the agenda at the climate summit in Turkey.
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