India’s southwest monsoon is showing alarming signs of stagnation, with satellite images revealing vast cloud-free regions over central and western India while the national rainfall deficit has widened to 40%, according to the latest data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
A morning INSAT-3DS satellite f Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and interior Karnataka appear almost cloudless, indicating a significant weakening of monsoon activity over the country’s core rain-fed agricultural belt.
Instead of the typical monsoon cloud bands stretching across the peninsula, most organised convection remains confined to the Bay of Bengal, Northeast India and parts of the equatorial Indian Ocean.
The stalled monsoon has translated into a sharp rainfall shortfall. IMD’s latest state-wise rainfall map for the period from June 4 to June 17 shows India has received only 39.7 mm of rain against the normal 65.9 mm, leaving the country with a deficit of 40%.
Several major states are facing severe rainfall shortages. Maharashtra has recorded a staggering 79% deficit, Gujarat 98%, Jharkhand 66%, Chhattisgarh 65%, and Meghalaya 85%.
Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Bihar and Assam are also reporting deficient rainfall. The situation is particularly concerning because these regions form a crucial part of India’s agricultural landscape, where kharif sowing typically gathers pace during June.
Weather experts attribute the slowdown to an unfavourable large-scale atmospheric pattern. The monsoon’s northern advance has virtually halted over the past week as moisture transport from the Arabian Sea remains weak. At the same time, upper-level winds continue to suppress the formation of widespread rain-bearing systems over central and western India.
The satellite imagery also highlights another unusual feature: while mainland India remains relatively cloud-free, a well-marked circulation is visible over the western Arabian Sea and extensive cloud masses are concentrated over the Bay of Bengal and Northeast India. This uneven distribution of moisture is preventing the monsoon from spreading uniformly across the country.
The delayed rains are beginning to raise concerns for agriculture. June is a critical month for sowing crops such as paddy, soybean, cotton and pulses. Prolonged dry conditions could affect planting schedules and soil moisture availability in several states if the rainfall deficit persists.
Forecast models suggest moisture inflow may strengthen after June 21, potentially helping the monsoon regain momentum.
However, with nearly half of June already gone and rainfall running 40% below normal, weather agencies will be closely monitoring whether the monsoon can recover quickly enough to avoid a deeper agricultural and economic impact.
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