New Delhi:
Following the completion of the final phase of voting in the West Bengal Assembly elections, several pollsters have released exit poll projections that show a divided picture of the likely outcome. Some surveys forecast a victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), while others suggest that the Trinamool Congress (TMC), led by Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, will retain power.
One prominent agency, however, has so far remained silent.
In an interview with NDTV, Pradeep Gupta, founder of Axis My India, said his organisation may not release exit poll data for West Bengal on Thursday if it does not obtain a sufficiently representative sample.
“See, the method of Axis My India is talking to people face to face. And when we tried to talk after the first phase, about 60-70 per cent of the people had their lips sealed. They were not even ready to say yes or no,” Gupta told NDTV.
“No one is ready to talk to anyone in the context of elections. So, as long as our sample is not representative, on the basis of a 20-30 per cent sample, we do not believe it is right to predict any number. For that, we will try once again Thursday. Maybe now that the elections have been held, people will be more relaxed,” he added.
Gupta reiterated in the interview that there is a “possibility” that Axis My India may not release its Bengal numbers on Thursday.
“I don’t have any opinion, because when no one is speaking, my boundaries are cut short,” Gupta said. “It is my habit to try my best. We have tried and sweated it out for all these days, and we have been sweating it out for so long. It would be a matter of disappointment for us too if we couldn’t predict it, after all the effort and sweat we’ve been putting in.”
The West Bengal assembly has 294 seats, with 148 needed for a majority.
Voting took place in several phases and concluded on Wednesday. Among the exit polls already released, projections vary significantly. Praja Poll estimated the BJP could win between 178 and 208 seats, while Matrize and Poll Diary placed the BJP above the majority threshold at 161 and 171 seats, respectively.
By contrast, Janmat Polls projected the Trinamool and its allies securing 195 to 205 seats, with Peoples Pulse forecasting a range of 177 to 187 seats for the ruling party. Both suggest that the Trinamool’s organisational strength and welfare programmes have helped it withstand the challenge from the BJP.
Most pollsters expect the alliance of the Left parties and the Congress to perform poorly, with their combined seat share remaining in single digits in many projections.
