The winners of the 83rd Golden Globes delivered a substantive early bellwether for the 2026 Oscars race with Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another seizing momentum across categories, Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet basking in critical affirmation, and Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent making a compelling case to lead the international conversation.
With wins across film, acting and craft categories, and despite their notoriously idiosyncratic voters, the Globes now shape the awards rhetoric heading into the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), Directors Guild (DGA), Writers Guild (WGA) and Academy Awards. And yes, while Globes successes don’t guarantee Oscar gold, history and recent precursor trends suggest they often point the compass.
Best Picture – Looks like ‘One Battle After Another’s to lose
A still from ‘One Battle After Another’
| Photo Credit:
Warner Bros
It would be hard to overstate how significant One Battle After Another’s Globes haul was. Not only did it win Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy, but Paul Thomas Anderson also picked up Best Director and Best Screenplay, while Teyana Taylor’s supporting win put acting weight behind its profile. These are exactly the kinds of multi-category victories that often presage Oscar strength; previous films with similar precursor patterns, like 2023’s Oppenheimer or 2022’s Everything Everywhere All at Once, went on to secure major Oscar wins. The fact that One Battle After Another already dominated critics groups like the National Society of Film Critics and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association further entrenches its position.
Industry trackers at Gold Derby and other awards forecasters currently place One Battle After Another atop most Best Picture charts, buoyed not just by wins but a steady accumulation of critical acclaim, guild nominations, and box-office footprint. Some pundits still list Sinners and Hamnet as viable challengers, but with Globe momentum and precursor victories stacking up, One Battle After Another looks comfortably positioned to be the film to beat.
If One Battle After Another turns this Golden Globes surge into an Oscar coronation, it would also rewrite a long-running sub-plot where PTA keeps showing up to the Oscars and leaving empty-handed. Anderson has 11 Oscar nominations without a win, a statistic that has become beel elevated to cinephile myth at this point, and the Globes finally gave him a very visible, very mainstream imprimatur with Director and Screenplay wins alongside the film’s top-picture prize.
The bigger point is how neatly this aligns with the 2020s Best Picture trajectory, where winners have tended to arrive with a broad “consensus package” built across critics, guilds, and industry momentum: Nomadland (2020), CODA (2021), Everything Everywhere All at Once (2022), Oppenheimer (2023) and Anora (2024) each rode a narrative of inevitability that hardened as the season progressed. That pipeline is designed for films that can win in multiple rooms, and One Battle After Another is already playing that game aggressively: SAG just handed it a record seven film nominations, including ensemble and multiple acting slots, which is the kind of visibility that keeps a title in voters’ faces whether they asked for it or not. Add the Producers Guild factor — the PGA’s top prize has matched the Oscar Best Picture winner 17 of the last 22 times — and you get why the post-Globes read is shifting from “can PTA finally win?” to “who, exactly, is supposed to stop him?”
Best Actress – Jessie Buckley a comfortable frontrunner with Rose Byrne a close second
Jessie Buckley poses with the Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama award for H’amnet’ at the 83rd Annual Golden Globes
| Photo Credit:
REUTERS
Jessie Buckley’s Golden Globe for Hamnet validated her season as a leading contender for the Oscar. The Globes dramatically spotlighted her emotional, nuanced performance, and that win complements her critics’ circle buzz and precursor nods. Her path feels steady. Meanwhile, Rose Byrne’s win for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You in the Musical or Comedy category may not map directly onto the Academy’s typically less genre-segmented voting, but it does boost her visibility and suggests crossover strength. The awards market even had both names near the top of their odds.
Best Actor – Timothée Chalamet will likely sweep, but Wagner Moura would be a phenomenal upset
Timothée Chalamet poses in the press room with the award for best performance by a male actor in a motion picture – musical or comedy for ‘Marty Supreme’ during the 83rd Golden Globes
| Photo Credit:
AP
Timothée Chalamet’s Globe for Marty Supreme puts him in the driver’s seat for the Oscar Best Actor race in a way that few other victories have this season. His consistent presence across precursor wins and predictions marks him as the frontrunner; you could almost set your watch to his name on every shortlist. That said, Wagner Moura’s Globe win for The Secret Agent should not be brushed aside as ceremonial. It’s rare, though deliciously overdue, when a performance from a non-traditional Oscar trajectory (especially in international fare) gains traction strong enough to upend the Academy’s preferences. If Moura’s campaign continues to ignite conversation through SAG and critics group wins, an upset could be more than hypothetical.
Best Supporting Actress – Tough to call but Teyana Taylor is leading, with Amy Madigan and the ‘Sentimental Value’ women following
Teyana Taylor poses in the press room with the award for best performance by a female actor in a supporting role in any motion picture for ‘One Battle After Another’ during the 83rd Golden Globes
| Photo Credit:
AP
Teyana Taylor’s Globe for One Battle After Another injects her into Oscar conversations with serious credibility. Supporting categories are often unpredictable, and this year is no different. Amy Madigan’s critical acclaim for Weapons and the ensemble strength of Sentimental Value’s cast (including Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas) muddies the waters. None of these names are lock ins for Oscar gold yet, but Taylor’s current positioning, buoyed by her Globe, definitely gives her the edge.
Best Supporting Actor – A muddle, but Skarsgård riding ‘One Battle After Another’s potential vote-split could help
Stellan Skarsgård poses in the press room with the award for best performance by a male actor in a supporting role in any motion picture for ‘Sentimental Value’ during the 83rd Golden Globes
| Photo Credit:
AP
This category feels like a moving target. Stellan Skarsgård’s Globe for Sentimental Value is a boost, but other contenders — from One Battle After Another’s Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn to Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi — have their own narratives and moments of critical praise. Historically, the Academy tends to reward seasoned character actors in this space, and Skarsgård’s veteran appeal might give him the kind of sentimental leg up voters love. Still, expect late-season guild outcomes to sway final Oscar odds heavily here.
Writing (Adapted/Original) – ‘One Battle After Another’ and ‘Hamnet’ to lock heads for Adpated, Original still tough to call
A still from ‘Hament’
| Photo Credit:
Focus Feature
One Battle After Another’s Globe wins for script strengthen its adapted screenplay case, which often dovetails with Best Picture campaigns. But Hamnet’s dramatic depth and literary pedigree give it a surprising look for adapted writing momentum among Oscar voters who favour classic foundations. Original screenplay remains a wide open field: Sinners, Sentimental Value, and It Was Just an Accident all have compelling claims, with critics groups and guild nods expected to weigh heavily as those ballots come in.
International Feature – ‘The Secret Agent’s strong push could echo ‘I’m Still Here’, but ‘Sentimental Value’ is still a favourite
A still from ‘The Secret Agent’
| Photo Credit:
NEON
The Secret Agent’s Globe credibility and Moura’s acting victory give the film staying power in international feature discourse. Yet Sentimental Value, Oscars’ darling across critics’ awards for international cinema, enters with strong momentum already. A repeat of I’m Still Here’s trajectory isn’t impossible for The Secret Agent, but as of now, the edge may still lie with Sentimental Value until guilds reaffirm.
Another industry thread worth watching closely is Neon’s increasingly realistic shot at landing a rare 5/5 International Feature nomination slate, a possibility that no longer sounds fanciful given how this season is shaping up. Buoyed by last year’s Anora run, Neon enters the final stretch with three more formidable potential nominees: It Was Just an Accident, Sirat, and No Other Choice. All three have performed strongly with critics’ groups and regional awards, and all benefit from Neon’s now well-established reputation for disciplined, voter-savvy campaigning in the international space. It Was Just an Accident already looks like a near lock, while Sirat and No Other Choice are gaining traction at precisely the moment Academy voters begin consolidating viewing habits. If Neon does manage to place all three alongside two additional international contenders, it would mark a striking consolidation of distributor power.
Animated Feature – ‘KPop Demon Hunters’ appears poised to go all the way
A still from ‘KPop Demon Hunters’
| Photo Credit:
Netflix
No real shock here: KPop Demon Hunters not only won the Globe but also leads in audience enthusiasm and prediction markets. Animated categories have a history of reward consistency when a title resonates broadly, and this one does, with both box-office and critical affection propelling its Oscar odds.
There is also a growing sense that KPop Demon Hunters may not be stopping at a single Oscar. The film is now increasingly being discussed as a potential two-Oscar player, thanks in large part to its strong position in Best Original Song. “Golden” has translated unusually well beyond the animation branch, racking up streaming numbers and industry goodwill that matter more than voters like to admit. That puts it on a collision course with Sinners’ breakout track “I Lied To You” by Miles Caton, which has dominated early critics’ mentions but lacks the same cross-branch ubiquity. If KPop Demon Hunters maintains its lead through guild nominations, it could very plausibly walk away with both trophies.
The Oscar nominations will be announced on January 22, 2026, final voting will run from February 26 to March 5, and the 98th Academy Awards will be held on Sunday, March 15, 2026, bringing the season to its conclusion.
Published – January 12, 2026 12:25 pm IST