As the high-decibel second phase of the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections drew to a close on Wednesday, Trinamool Congress (TMC) MP Derek O’Brien launched a sharp offensive against pollsters. After a set of exit polls came out and most of them predicted an end to Mamata Banerjee-led TMC’s reign, O’Brien shared a comparative infographic highlighting exit-poll inaccuracies from 2021.
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On X, O’Brien posted a graphic with the caption, “Credibility of Exit Polls?Bengal Polls 2021: How off the mark were the predictions from the final results”, which detailed three main exit polls of 2021.
The data shared by O’Brien illustratedthat India Today (Axis My India) had predicted a neck-and-neck race, suggesting 143 seats out of the total 294 for the TMC, and 147 for the BJP, in the 2021 elections. Others, such as ABP (C-Voter) and CNN News18, projected the TMC to win but hover between 158 and 162 seats.
What actually happened
The actual outcome, however, was a landslide victory for Mamata Banerjee’s party, which secured 213 seats (plus two later in bypolls, thus 215), while the BJP was restricted to 77, though a big jump from its tally of just three in 2016.
This time, three pollsters — Matrize (146–161), P-Marq (150–175), and Poll Diary (142–171) — have given BJP a narrow to comfortable majority in the 294-seat house, while People’s Pulse has projected a sweeping TMC return at 177–187 seats.
Challenge to Modi: ‘Resign if Mamata wins’
The post about exit polls followed an aggressive morning post in which Derek O’Brien issued a direct challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In a video message that set the tone for Phase 2 polling, the TMC leader dared the Prime Minister to step down from his post if the BJP fails to unseat the Banerjee government.
“Narendra, you had announced that you are the candidate for all 294 seats in Bengal. Drop the big talk. Accept this challenge,” O’Brien said in the video. He has been using first names for Narendra Modi and home minister Amit Shah as a retort for the BJP’s use of just ‘Mamata’ to refer to CM Banerjee.
“On May 4, when Mamata Banerjee and TMC win Bengal, resign from the Prime Minister’s post. Got the guts?” he wrote.
The challenge centered on the BJP’s strategy of making the PM the face of the state campaign.
These verbal volleys came as 142 seats across seven districts went to the polls on Wednesday. The phase recorded a massive voter turnout of around 92%
Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, contesting the pivotal Bhabanipur seat against BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari, spent the day leveling serious charges against the central forces. She alleged that CRPF personnel were “torturing” voters and “picking up TMC boys” at the behest of BJP-aligned observers.
“They are not allowing our councilors to step out. CRPF forces went to my Ward 70 councillor’s house without the local police and attacked his house,” Banerjee claimed during a media briefing, even as she flashed purported video evidence.
The BJP, however, remains confident. Party leaders countered the TMC’s narrative, claiming that the high turnout is a sign of “silent voters” coming out to end the TMC’s 15-year reign. They also filed complaints alleging that TMC workers used tape to block BJP buttons on EVMs in several booths.
