Statements and counter-statements, runs to the Speaker’s office, exchanges of letters and proof of signatures — the theatrics and optics are all playing out in the national capital. Is this a precursor to the political storm brewing ahead of the Monsoon Session in Parliament?
Is Prime Minister Narendra Modi inching closer to securing the numbers required to push through the Women’s Reservation Amendment Bill and the Delimitation Bill in Parliament?
The answer could lie in the shifting political equations across states, with the numbers game likely to play out during the Monsoon Session beginning on July 20.
THE NUMBER DEFICIT
In April, the Modi government failed to pass the Constitutional Amendment Bill linked to women’s reservation and delimitation during the special session of Parliament. Though the Bill secured 298 votes in favour and 230 against, it fell short of the two-thirds majority required to amend the Constitution. With 528 MPs present and voting, the government needed the support of 352 MPs.
At the time, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had said, “We did not have the numbers yesterday, but that does not mean we have lost. We will get more opportunities in the future.”
Since then, the political landscape has undergone dramatic changes.
THE BENGAL FACTOR
The first major development has come from West Bengal, where 20 rebel Trinamool Congress MPs have announced support for the NDA after merging with a new outfit, the NCPI. If these MPs are added to the NDA’s April tally of 298, the number rises to 318.
TMC MP Kirti Azad, who has sworn loyalty to Mamata Banerjee, said, “Their situation is dire. The BJP has taken them away from the TMC and left them politically abandoned. The BJP wants to cross the figure of 362, and then it will play its game in Maharashtra. They want to bring the Delimitation Bill. There has been no morality in politics for the last 12 years,” he added.
MAHARASHTRA: THE NEXT FRONTIER
The second development is emerging in Maharashtra. Speculation is rife over a possible split in the Shiv Sena (UBT). The party has nine Lok Sabha MPs, and under the anti-defection law, at least six MPs would need to break away for a split to be recognised.
If six MPs join the NDA camp, the tally could climb to 324.
Sensing the trouble, Uddhav Thackeray made his stance clear during Sunday’s meeting with party MPs.
“Today might not be mine, but tomorrow definitely will be. Until then, we have to endure and bear it. What is the point of forcing someone to stay if they already want to leave? If someone wants to go, they are free to leave. I will only wish them well.”
HOPING TO WOO A MIFFED DMK
Attention has also shifted to Tamil Nadu. Political circles are closely watching the equations involving the DMK. Although the DMK has sought separate seating arrangements from the Congress in Parliament and differences within the INDIA bloc have surfaced, there is no indication of any support to the NDA.
Congress sources said there was a need to engage with the DMK, one of its most trusted allies, and efforts would be made to reach out before the Monsoon Session.
However, the BJP would be hoping that Rahul Gandhi’s proximity to actor-turned-politician Vijay could alter political dynamics. The BJP is also likely to argue that a population-based delimitation exercise could hurt states like Tamil Nadu, which have successfully controlled population growth. The proposal to increase Lok Sabha seats by 50 per cent could potentially benefit southern states.
Senior Congress MP Tariq Anwar said that “I don’t think the DMK could ever vote in favour of the Bill. But this government is indeed trying everything possible to break opposition parties. They want the numbers to pass the Delimitation Bill, so they will try every option available to them,” he added.
THE PERMUTATIONS AND THE NUMBER GAME
If the NDA’s original tally of 298 is combined with support from 20 rebel TMC MPs, six rebel Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs and all 22 DMK MPs, the number reaches 346 — still 14 short of the two-thirds mark of 360 in a House of 540 members.
As the buzz is going around, a ruling party MP said, “There were 12 abstentions last time even though we fell short of the required number. Who knows, the abstentions could increase this time. We would need 14 more MPs either to abstain or some more to vote in favour of the Bill.”
Notably, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha could emerge as another dark horse that may help bridge the gap.
The BJP’s calculations suggest that the road to these crucial constitutional amendments remains challenging but not impossible, with the coming weeks expected to witness intense political manoeuvring.
– Ends
