As Ethiopians head to the polls, François Picard is pleased to welcome Jervin Naidoo, Political Analyst at Oxford Economics Africa. While official narratives emphasise stability and democratic progress, significant portions of the country remain excluded from voting, raising concerns about representation, legitimacy, and the consolidation of power. Naidoo argues that while voting has proceeded in much of the country, the exclusion of Tigray and dozens of constituencies elsewhere constitutes “a big problem” that “hurts the government’s legitimacy.”
All the while, he acknowledges Ethiopia’s considerable economic potential, describing the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as “an amazing piece of infrastructure, not just for Ethiopia, but for Africa.”
Naidoo describes a country suspended between promise and peril. Ethiopia remains one of Africa’s most strategically important economies, with “underlying green shoots” that continue to attract investors. Yet he warns of mounting political centralization, growing feelings of exclusion among key ethnic constituencies, and the possibility that access to the sea could become an increasingly destabilizing geopolitical objective.
Looking ahead, he predicts that Abiy Ahmed, if strengthened by another overwhelming electoral victory, may seek further measures “to consolidate control,” while tensions across the Horn of Africa risk becoming even more pronounced.
What emerges is a portrait of a nation whose ambitions remain vast, but whose democratic and regional challenges continue to cast a long shadow over its future.
