Hopes of witnessing the Northern Lights from parts of India have dimmed after a powerful solar eruption expected to strike Earth on June 8 failed to arrive on schedule.
Space weather forecasters had been tracking a coronal mass ejection (CME), which is a giant cloud of charged particles blasted into space by the Sun. This particular CME was initially expected to trigger a strong G3 geomagnetic storm. Such storms can occasionally push auroras, or Northern Lights, to unusually low latitudes.
Geomagnetic storms are ranked on a scale from G1 to G5, with G1 classified as minor and G3 considered a strong storm capable of producing more widespread auroras and greater impacts on Earth’s magnetic environment.
The CME, however, did not reach Earth on June 8, suggesting that it is either travelling more slowly than expected or may have largely missed the planet altogether.
As a result, forecasters now say only minor G1 geomagnetic storms are possible if the solar particles arrive late, meaning the likelihood of a stronger storm capable of producing auroras visible from India has dropped significantly.
WHAT IS CME AND WHY ARE SCIENTISTS WATCHING IT?
A CME is a massive burst of magnetised plasma released from the Sun. When such a cloud collides with Earth’s magnetic field, it can trigger geomagnetic storms that create colourful auroras near the poles and, in stronger events, much farther south.
This expected event had generated considerable excitement because forecasts suggested the storm could become strong enough to make auroras visible from parts of northern India, particularly high-altitude regions such as Ladakh and parts of Jammu & Kashmir.
Interest in such events has grown in India after rare auroral displays were recorded over Ladakh in recent years during periods of heightened solar activity.
Those sightings demonstrated that, under exceptional conditions, auroras can occasionally be seen much farther south than their usual Arctic and Antarctic homes.
WILL AURORAS BE VISIBLE IN INDIA TONIGHT?
For those who were waiting to catch a glimpse of dancing waves of light in the night sky, disappointment is more likely as the chances of auroras appearing have become lower.
Auroras in India generally require an unusually strong geomagnetic storm and clear, dark skies at high northern latitudes. With the anticipated CME yet to arrive and forecasts downgraded from a potentially strong G3 storm to only minor G1 conditions, the probability of visible auroras over India has decreased substantially.
While a brief display cannot be completely ruled out in the highest reaches of Ladakh if the CME delivers a late surprise, most experts do not expect widespread aurora sightings across India tonight.
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