When the US and Israel combined to bombard Iran this year, there was a simple assumption: a short, decisive, one-sided conflict. That assumption died a slow death as the war dragged on for over a month, strangling the global economy. Iran did not crumble under pressure, and emerged more unpredictable, if not more dangerous. The conflict provided a sobering lesson – modern wars don’t follow old, conventional scripts. For India, the timing of the lessons is hard to ignore as its Operation Sindoor against Pakistan completes a year. The warnings from the Iran war will be difficult to ignore.
Now, you may ask why? Iran, in some ways, is like Pakistan. In his book Tinderbox: The Past and Future of Pakistan, former Union Minister MJ Akbar calls Pakistan a “toxic jelly state” – always unstable. Unlike butter, which melts or solidifies, jelly wobbles and stays in place. Thus, with India having a “state sponsor of terrorism” country as its neighbour and a radical army chief like Asim Munir at its helm, the next conflict is not a question of why, but when.
INDIA’S PAKISTAN TEMPLATE
Shortly after the three-day hostilities in May last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi laid the template – a “new normal” where India will “strike precisely and decisively” without tolerating any nuclear blackmail.
A US intel report presented to the Senate in March this year specifically noted that conditions exist for terrorist actors to continue to create “catalysts for crises”. It also did not rule out a potential nuclear conflict in the future. Another report by a US think-tank, the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), said there was a “moderate likelihood” of an armed conflict between India and Pakistan due to heightened terrorist activity.
Thus, against this backdrop, it becomes essential for Indian military planners to be prepared for a fast, saturated with drones and missiles, multi-domain warfare like the Iran war has shown us. A country nearly half the size of India inflicting massive damage on a technologically superior US and Israel has given strategic and military thinkers across the world food for thought.
The conflict, which engulfed the whole of the Middle East, has thrown a buzzword – asymmetric warfare. It is basically a combination of guerrilla tactics and surprise attacks using drones.
COLD START 2.0
The Iran conflict has also shown the advantages of non-kinetic warfare, where damage can be inflicted on a country without crossing its airspace. Iran used this to full effect, sending swarms of cheap Shahed drones to strike US military assets and energy infrastructure across the Gulf.
A glimpse of it was seen during Operation Sindoor as well. On May 7, under the darkest hours of the night, India launched its most daring operation in Pakistan in reprisal for the Pahalgam terror attack. India engaged in what is termed as a “stand-off” conflict – using long-range weapons to flatten nine terror camps deep inside Pakistani territory.
Pakistan responded by sending hundreds of Turkish-made Asisguard Songar drones in waves, targeting around 35 military sites from Punjab to Jammu. However, most of them were intercepted by India’s integrated air defence network, with the Russian S-400 Trimuf doing the heavy lifting. A ballistic missile, probably the Fateh, fired towards Delhi was also neutralised over Haryana.
The very next day, a rampage by IAF jets and drones saw 11 PAF air bases being hit. Pakistan had no option but to retreat and dial India for a ceasefire. May 10, 2025, will be etched in Pakistan’s memory similar to December 16, 1971 – the day 93,000 Pakistani soldiers surrendered in the Bangladesh Liberation War.
According to defence expert Sandeep Unnithan, Sindoor showed the contours of a future conventional conflict with Pakistan.
“It is what I would call Cold Start 2.0, where the Indian military, for the first time in its history, can go from ‘silent to violent’ in minutes,” Unnithan told IndiaToday.in.
The origins of the Cold Start strategy can be traced back to 2002. India’s Operation Parakram, launched after the 2001 Parliament attack, exposed gaps in India’s ability to rapidly mobilise troops. In fact, it took three weeks for Indian troops to mobilise and reach their positions. It allowed Pakistan to counter-mobilise its troops and invited global intervention. The shock factor was gone.
IMPORTANCE OF GEOGRAPHY
The Iran war showed the importance of geography. Tehran, despite having much of its air and naval fleet destroyed in US and Israeli strikes, used its location to good effect to use the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil corridor, as leverage in the war. It eventually forced US President Donald Trump’s hand to reach for a ceasefire.
India, too, can use Pakistan’s geography to its advantage. Factor this – it is a country that is just 1,600 km from north to south, and 885 km from east to west. “This east-west distance is just about the maximum range of a Brahmos (extended range) cruise missile,” Unnithan said.
This effectively means that no target in Pakistan is beyond the range or reach of Indian missiles. This is where the Cold Start 2.0 comes into play.
“Cold Start 2.0 uses Pakistan’s geography against it. India can, within minutes, paralyse Pakistan’s entire military infrastructure, without crossing either the LoC or the International Border. Air bases can be shattered, radars can be destroyed, warships and submarines can be hit in ports, before they sail out,” Unnithan said.
Now, theoretically, Pakistan can acquire US or Turkish anti-missile defences. Some of these might even stop a few Brahmos missiles, but India is developing faster versions of the Brahmos as well.
THE GAMECHANGER – CHEAP DRONES
During the Iran war, drones proved to be the game changer. Not the US’s MQ-4C Triton type, which costs a bomb at $200 million (Rs 1,660 crore). But the Iranian one – the Shahed, which costs around $35,000 (Rs 30 lakh) a piece.
Even with a depleted air force, Iran used numerous Shahed drones to harass superior militaries across the Gulf. Not only to strike oil facilities and other critical infrastructure, but also to overwhelm the US and Israel’s high-tech defences.
The US and Israel, on the other hand, spent millions on intercepting them using Patriot missiles. Each Patriot missile costs $4 million (Rs 33 crore). Imagine spending Rs 33 crore to just intercept a drone that costs less than 1% of its value. The math is not mathing.
India also used loitering munitions, like Israel-made Harop, during Sindoor. But firing an expensive missile or UAV to down a cheap drone is not sustainable. According to Unnithan, India is perhaps the only major country without a plan to produce such affordable, cheap drones at scale.
However, India may soon have its own Shahed, with the Sheshnag-150 drone and Project KAL in development stage. Therein lies the third lesson from the Iran war – the economics of modern warfare.
“Drones can not only penetrate deep behind enemy lines, it creates fear psychosis as well. India must be prepared to both use drones in large numbers,” defence analyst Harpreet Sidhu told Sputnik India.
In fact, in the past 12 months, a bulk of military contracts have gone primarily for drones and counter-drone systems, radars and electronic warfare equipment.
A ROCKET-MISSILE FORCE
So, it’s clear now that in the age of non-contact warfare, guided munitions hold the key. To operate these, several countries like China and Iran have a separate entity – a rocket-cum-missile force. Iran, in fact, arguably has the world’s most potent missile force.
After Sindoor, Pakistan too has scurried to set up an Army Rocket Force with help from its all-weather friend China. Army Chief General Upendra Dwivedi underscored its need during his address on Army Day earlier this year. “It is the need of the hour,” he said.
So far, the Corps of Army Air Defence (AAD) has been handling the missile and rocket inventory. A rocket force can help blunt saturation attacks in case of a short, intense conflict.
SHOOT AND SCOOT
The fifth lesson is mobility or ‘shoot-and-scoot’ tactics.
Even as Trump boasted that the US had air superiority over Iran, Tehran shot down advanced jets like the F-15E Strike Eagle and reportedly an F-35 as well. It is believed that Iran, with its air defences non-existent, used shoulder-fired missiles, which are harder to detect.
After the brief 12-day war last year, Iran moved away from fixed air defence installations and invested in mobile surface-to-air missile launchers.
These can quickly change positions, making them harder to detect. The idea is simple – fire and relocate before these launchers can be targeted.
Defence Secretary Rajesh Kumar Singh highlighted its importance during a summit.
“Both from the Middle East as well as the ongoing Ukraine conflicts, you do have lessons… things like the importance of standoff weaponry, of a layered and strong air defence system, and ensuring that your radars are mobile and your artillery is also mobile,” Singh said.
The work on a stronger air defence system is already underway, with PM Modi announcing Mission Sudarshan Chakra on Independence Day last year. It is basically a multi-layered defence shield styled on Israel’s Iron Dome.
During the May 2025 conflict, India showed Pakistan what it could do in 80 hours. But India too suffered aircraft losses, as was admitted by Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) Gen Anil Chauhan. Thus, it becomes imperative to inculcate the lessons from the Iran war, which has shown that modern warfare is no longer limited to battlefields. If done right, Operation Sindoor 2.0 can be more lethal.
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